
U.S. Midterms and the 10-Year Treasury: No Dependable Trading Rule
By Laurence Allen A Democratic midterm victory under a Republican president can support lower 10-year Treasury yields by limiting additional fiscal expansion. But history offers no dependable trading rule; yields declined following the 2006 and 2018 elections yet rose after 1986. The central distinction is between an election’s effect on legislation and the economic forces that ultimately determine interest rates. What history shows Using November’s monthly average yield




























